MemTrace: Probing What Final Accuracy Misses in Long-Term Memory

AuthorsXianxuan Long, Zhikai Chen, Shenglai Zeng et al.

arXiv 20262026

TL;DR

MemTrace uses per-fact knowledge-point probes across memory age, question type, and evidence condition to show that failures come from evidence use, not retrieval, with errors 10× more often on reachable evidence.

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THE PROBLEM

Final accuracy hides fact-level failures in long-term memory

Aggregating accuracy over question rows treats multiple queries about one fact as independent, so it cannot show how that fact behaves as conditions change.

MemTrace shows that systems can answer a current role correctly while failing historical and trajectory questions on the same knowledge point, breaking user-facing coherence.

HOW IT WORKS

MemTrace knowledge-point protocol

MemTrace centers four components: Knowledge points, Probe construction, Metrics, and Diagnostic views, all built from multi-session user histories in HaluMem-Medium.

Like a card catalog for user facts, MemTrace files each fact as a card, then repeatedly checks that card under different time windows and evidence conditions.

This per-fact protocol lets MemTrace expose retention, trajectory tracking, and safe behavior under missing or conflicting evidence that a plain context window benchmark cannot reveal.

DIAGRAM

MemTrace probing dimensions over a user fact

This diagram shows how MemTrace probes each knowledge point across memory age, question type, and evidence condition while keeping the underlying fact fixed.

DIAGRAM

MemTrace evaluation and failure attribution pipeline

This diagram shows how MemTrace builds memory windows, scores responses, and then decomposes failures into retrieval reach versus evidence use.

PROCESS

How MemTrace Handles a Knowledge Point Across Sessions

  1. 01

    Probe Construction

    MemTrace pairs each knowledge point with a memory window and evidence condition, forming base probes that reflect realistic multi-session queries.

  2. 02

    Memory Age Windows

    MemTrace evaluates each user history at eight chronological checkpoints W1 to W8, mapping a retention trace from fresh to saturated memory.

  3. 03

    Question Type Expansion

    MemTrace expands each base probe into current, historical, and trajectory question rows so the same fact is tested under varied query intents.

  4. 04

    Diagnostic Views

    MemTrace aggregates scores into memory maintenance, evidence-condition behavior, and reach versus use attribution to explain where and why systems fail.

KEY CONTRIBUTIONS

Key Contributions

  • 01

    Knowledge-point benchmark design

    MemTrace introduces a knowledge-point benchmark over 835 typed knowledge points and 15,422 question rows, using Probe construction and Diagnostic views to analyze fact-level behavior.

  • 02

    Three probing dimensions

    MemTrace systematically varies memory age, question type, and evidence condition, showing that recovering current and earlier states does not imply tracking trajectory or correcting false premises.

  • 03

    Failure attribution: reach vs use

    MemTrace’s reach versus use analysis shows that when systems fail, gold evidence is retrievable about 10× more often than missing, making evidence use the dominant bottleneck.

RESULTS

By the Numbers

Overall Saturated Gist

36.5%

+3.9 over Mem-T

Current Fresh Gist

69.7%

+3.7 over Qwen3.5-35B

Historical Saturated Gist

50.9%

+3.8 over Qwen3.5-35B

Trajectory Saturated Gist

19.8%

+6.4 over HippoRAG-v2

On MemTrace’s 835 knowledge points and 5,677 base probes, HippoRAG-v2 and Mem-T illustrate how endpoint accuracy and trajectory questions diverge. The main result shows that similar pooled scores mask large gaps, such as Qwen3.5-35B dropping from 49.0% fresh trajectory Gist to 6.7% saturated while Mem-T retains 19.8%.

BENCHMARK

By the Numbers

On MemTrace’s 835 knowledge points and 5,677 base probes, HippoRAG-v2 and Mem-T illustrate how endpoint accuracy and trajectory questions diverge. The main result shows that similar pooled scores mask large gaps, such as Qwen3.5-35B dropping from 49.0% fresh trajectory Gist to 6.7% saturated while Mem-T retains 19.8%.

BENCHMARK

Memory maintenance by question type on MemTrace

Saturated Gist accuracy (%) for current questions across representative memory paradigms.

KEY INSIGHT

The Counterintuitive Finding

MemTrace’s reach versus use replay shows that only 7.0% of sampled failures are reach misses, while 73.3% are retriever-reached but unsolved.

This is counterintuitive because many builders assume retrieval is the main bottleneck, yet MemTrace demonstrates that evidence use dominates by roughly an order of magnitude.

WHY IT MATTERS

What this unlocks for the field

MemTrace unlocks fact-level diagnostics for long-term memory systems, revealing how individual user facts decay, mis-update, or cause unsafe behavior over time.

Builders can now design memory architectures that explicitly organize temporal and conflict structure around knowledge points, instead of only scaling context windows or retrievers.

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